Equity benchmarks face a key test as investors weigh consumption revival hopes against tariff pressures and weak earnings. Amidst this, HSBC has outlined tailwinds and risks that could cap gains.
The Indian equity market is set for an event-heavy week, with analysts pointing to the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) interest rate decision, developments in the US-Iran situation, and crude oil prices as the primary determinants of market trends.
Macroeconomic data announcements, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would be major driving factors for market movement this week, analysts said. Unabated capital infusion by domestic institutional investors have supported the positive trend in the stock market last week, traders said.
10 stocks from the Nifty 200 index that offer good growth potential and scope to deliver decent returns from current levels, based on brokerage estimates.
Analysts predict that developments in West Asia and their impact on crude oil prices will heavily influence investor sentiment in the upcoming week. Global market trends, foreign investor activity, and rupee-dollar movement will also play a role.
Just over a year ago, India was investors' top pick among EMs. Its slide down the rankings follows $30 billion (over 2.5 trillion) of foreign selling over the past 12-13 months.
As India faces slowing economic growth, HSBC Global Research has downgraded the Indian stock market outlook from "overweight" to "neutral". In a report, the global financial services firm said profits at India Inc appeared to have softened while valuations are elevated. After annualized growth of 25 per cent in recent years, profits appear to have softened while valuations are elevated at 23x forward earnings.
'We believe the truth is in the middle, and that India is at an important crossroads.'
GST Reform 2.0, which trims tax slabs from four to two, signals a push for demand-led growth, and together with recent income tax cuts, sets the stage for sustained economic growth, experts said. The Goods and Services Tax (GST) Council on September 3 approved an overhaul of the indirect tax regime by taxing essentials at 5 per cent and other goods at 18 per cent. A new 40 per cent tax will be applicable on luxury and sin items.
Reliance Industries cracked 4.42 per cent, while ITC, Kotak Mahindra Bank, InterGlobe Aviation, and HDFC Bank were also among the laggards. However, ICICI Bank, Sun Pharma, Hindustan Unilever, and State Bank of India were among the gainers.
A host of macroeconomic data announcements, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would dictate investors' sentiment in the stock market this week, analysts said. Besides, auto sales data will be closely tracked, experts noted.
Trading sentiment in the equity market will be guided by macroeconomic data announcements, global trends and quarterly earnings from IT major TCS this week, analysts said. Stock markets would also be tracking trading activity of foreign investors who remained net sellers of Indian equities in September.
Multiple tailwinds for the automobile sector, including a cut in goods and services tax (GST) rates, are keeping analysts bullish on auto stocks from a long-term perspective, even as they see the rally running its course in the near term.
The domestic initial public offering (IPO) market is experiencing a significant surge, fuelled by the financialisation of savings, digital ease of investing, and expanding participation from both retail and institutional investors, investment bankers said on Wednesday.
In an event-heavy week ahead, stock markets' movement would highly depend on macroeconomic data announcements, global trends, RBI's interest rate decision and trading activity of foreign investors, analysts said. India's industrial production data for October 2025 will be released on December 1, an official statement said on Friday.
Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty closed lower in a highly volatile trade on Thursday amid relentless foreign fund outflows and selling in blue-chip ICICI Bank. Falling for the second day in a row, the 30-share BSE Sensex declined 148.14 points or 0.18 per cent to settle at 83,311.01.
The rupee breached 90-levels against the greenback for the first time on Wednesday, falling 6 paise to 90.02 in early trade, as banks kept buying US dollars at higher levels and FII outflows continued.
'Trade deal will act as a strong trigger for market sentiment, not just for domestic investors but also for FIIs.'
'Listing of scaled Indian subsidiaries of multinational corporations as well as of Indian conglomerates continues to remain a key theme for IPOs in India.'
'The frenzy for gold is primarily due to the uncertainty surrounding the tariff war.'
Foreign portfolio investors sold stocks worth Rs 1.42 trillion in 2025, with their sales hitting Rs 12,257 crore in the first four trading days of September.
Equity markets this week will turn their focus on the RBI's interest rate decision, Q1 earnings from several blue-chip firms and tariff-related news for further cues, analysts said. Moreover, trading activity of foreign investors and trends in global equity markets will also drive investors' sentiment.
From the Sensex pack, Bajaj Finserv, Larsen & Toubro, Bajaj Finance, HDFC Bank, Bharat Electronics and Kotak Mahindra Bank were among the major laggards. However, Tata Steel, Asian Paints, UltraTech Cement, and Trent were the biggest gainers.
Reliance Industries Ltd, India's most valuable company, is back on a growth path after six months of challenges as it posted better than expected earnings in the December quarter, brokerages said.
Bajaj Finance, IndusInd Bank, State Bank of India, Maruti, Tata Motors, ITC, Tata Steel and Reliance Industries were also among the gainers. Nestle, NTPC, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Power Grid and Titan were among the laggards.
Among the Sensex firms, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Finance, Adani Ports, Trent, State Bank of India, Titan and Tata Consultancy Services were the laggards. However, Maruti, Infosys, NTPC, Asian Paints, Eternal and Hindustan Unilever were among the biggest gainers.
Analysts have largely maintained their positive outlook on HDFC Bank, as the private lender reported in-line results for the October-December quarter (Q3) of the current financial year (2024-25/FY25). They believe the results were 'strong' given the tough macro environment, and relative to peers.
Dr Reddy's Laboratories (DRL) share price plunged 6.66 per cent to Rs 1,203.50 per share on the NSE during Friday after analysts remained cautious on the company's Q3 performance and differed on its growth outlook. DRL's Q3 performance was viewed as subdued by some analysts when they adjusted it for one-time grants and incomes that the company received during the quarter.
From the Sensex firms, Tech Mahindra, Tata Steel, Tata Motors, Titan, HDFC Bank, IndusInd Bank, Infosys and Kotak Mahindra Bank were among the biggest laggards. On the other hand, Adani Ports, Mahindra & Mahindra, Power Grid, Eternal and Hindustan Unilever were among the gainers.
The US Fed interest rate decision, trading activity of foreign investors and quarterly earnings from corporates would largely drive the momentum in the equity market this week, analysts said. Escalating tensions between India and Pakistan over the Pahalgam terror attack will also remain on investors' radar, they added.
Stock markets are in for an event-heavy week ahead with a raft of Q1 earnings from blue-chips, the US Fed interest rate decision and foreign investors trading activity driving investors' sentiment, analysts said. Macroeconomic data announcements, monthly auto sales numbers and global market trends would also guide movement in the domestic equities, they said.
State Bank of India (SBI), the largest lender in the country, has launched a share sale to institutional investors to raise upto Rs 25,000 crore, the biggest qualified institutional placement (QIP) so far by an Indian firm, and has set a floor price of Rs 811.05, which is at a 2.5 per cent discount on Wednesday's closing price.
From the Sensex pack, Adani Ports, Tata Steel, Power Grid, Mahindra & Mahindra, NTPC, Tech Mahindra, Tata Motors, ITC, Nestle India, HCL Technologies, Bharti Airtel, State Bank of India, Asian Paints and Kotak Mahindra Bank were the gainers. Bajaj Finance, IndusInd Bank, HDFC Bank, and Zomato were the laggards.
From the Sensex pack, Zomato jumped nearly 5 per cent, followed by Titan which climbed almost 4 per cent. IndusInd Bank, Maruti, Tech Mahindra, Adani Ports, Bharti Airtel and HDFC Bank were also among the gainers.
'Within India, people want high-quality, personalised banking services, and the demand for such services has exploded.'
Among Sensex firms, Eternal, Tata Motors, State Bank of India, Adani Ports, NTPC, IndusInd Bank, Bajaj Finance, Asian Paints, Axis Bank and Sun Pharma were the major losers. Bharti Airtel, Tata Steel, Mahindra & Mahindra, Hindustan Unilever, Nestle and Maruti were among the gainers.
Equity strategists are basing their expectation on strong corporate earnings recovery, supportive global economic growth, and gradual improvement in business sentiment.
Indian equity markets had a good run in the first half of calendar year 2023 (CY23), with the S&P BSE Sensex and the National Stock Exchange Nifty50 hitting fresh 52-week highs. While the Sensex scaled up to a peak 64,718, the Nifty50 hit Mt 19,189. As the markets now prepare to enter the second half (H2) of CY23, all eyes are on global central banks, especially the US Federal Reserve, as to when they will pause and pivot as regards their interest-rate cycle.
From 30 Sensex shares, Bajaj Finserv jumped nearly 8 per cent while Bajaj Finance soared over 6 per cent. Maruti, Titan, Mahindra, Mahindra & Mahindra, Infosys, HCL Tech, Zomato, UltraTech Cement and Kotak Mahindra Bank were the other major gainers. Sun Pharma emerged as the only laggard.
